Asia Pacific Daily commentator Zhang Jingwei
In the face of two "nuclear games" of the Iranian nuclear nucleus, Trump smashed Iraqi pain and was relatively gentle toward North Korea. It seems that people do not understand, in fact, contains mystery.
Trump withdrew from Iran’s nuclear agreement and moved to Jerusalem with the embassy in the US. The Middle East’s layout in the United States is to help fight Iraq. Even if the EU’s rebound and the Islamic world protests, Trump will not hesitate to . The reason for this is that the Iranian nuclear is the biggest threat to the Middle East in the United States, and Israel is America’s hardy ally in the Middle East. To help Israel, Israel will become a vanguard of the United States in the Middle East and will also strengthen the alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia stood on the side of the United States and also pulled the Arab Sunnis.
The U.S.-Israel alliance will be able to form a powerful force against Russia and Israel and reverse the US's decline in Russia during the Syrian civil war. Withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement, the "pulling rack" between Palestine and Israel is Trump's act of "U.S. priority" actuated in the Middle East. Compared to the EU's insistence on the "correctness" of Iran's nuclear agreement, Trump's willfulness is in keeping with the nature of its businessman's president.
U.S. President Trump Announces Withdrawal from Iranian Nuclear Agreement At the same time, it signed the president’s memorandum and resumed the economic sanctions imposed on the Iranian regime.
North Korea's nuclear crisis, although the two have had a fierce battle, the US military deterrence is also near critical, but Trump has not released his "anger and fire" against North Korea. ". The fundamental reason is that North Korea is not a deadly threat to the United States.
From repeated failed nuclear tests, satellite launches, and rocket launches to North Korea, there are nuclear weapons capable of reaching the United States. The 25-year North Korean nuclear crisis has been seen by the United States for a long time. For nuclear blackmail. North Korea, which continuously conducted nuclear tests during the period of closure and sanctions, has become the only straw that demonstrates the existence and the security of the regime. It has also become the only sign of negotiation with the United States. Such North Korea (even with nuclear weapons) poses a threat to the United States as "mosquito to lion." More importantly, the denuclearization of the peninsula is the consensus of all countries in the region. As long as the United States does not use force, countries in the region including China will become an important force for North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons.
China has played a roleThe key role, from cooperating with international sanctions, to the "Xinjinhui" before the "Golden Paper Council" and "Special Fair", highlights the importance of Sino-North Korean relations to North Korea. It can also be said that the two "Xi Jinhui" have made North Korea a nuclear abandonment with a sense of security and insurance. "The Wenjin meeting" symbolizes the reconciliation between the north and the south of the peninsula and is also the driving force behind North Korea's abandonment of its nuclear program. When North Korea returns, it is no longer a threat.
In terms of historical and cultural factors, East Asian countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Korea belong to the Confucian cultural circle and are typical secular countries. These countries may have ideological differences and geopolitical games, but there will be no conflicts due to clan fanaticism and clan factors. In short, the core element of North Korea’s nuclear crisis is that as long as it meets North Korea’s security aspirations—that is, national security and the existence of power, North Korea will abandon nuclear exchange for peace.
In contrast, the Iranian nuclear crisis is much more complicated. The United States and Iraq have been hostile to the enemy for nearly 40 years, and Iran is a Shia country in the Gulf region. Iran’s nuclear dominance is not only anti-American, but also anti-Israeli, and Sunni countries headed by Saudi Arabia are also playing a religious game. Iran also deeply intervened in the Syrian civil war and formed a three-way alliance between Russia, Iraq and Syria that confronted the United States. Therefore, the U.S. withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear multilateral agreement is inseparable from the U.S. traditional Middle East strategic interests.
Therefore, the Iranian nuclear and North Korean nuclear "nuclear games" are seen by Trump as a dangerous game, while the latter is a game that can turn crisis into a chance. There is also the United States’ withdrawal of the Iranian nuclear agreement. Although the European Union strongly opposes it, between the United States and Iran, the United States believes that the EU will eventually stand on the side of the United States. If the United States is dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis, the use of force to make the peninsula chaotic, not only China and Russia do not agree, Korea will resolutely oppose. The use of different rules of the game in the two "nuclear games" is both the cause of the United States risk assessment and the result of fierce competition between interested parties. North Korea's "nuclear games" appear to be in a healthy development. Before the "Special Money Club", the new US Secretary of State Pompeo has had two sessions of Kim Jong Eun, and the interest demands of both parties have also reached a key point. Pompeo pointed out that if the DPRK realizes a "complete, verifiable, irreversible" denuclearization, "it is undeniable that the United States will have to provide security assurances to the DPRK." In addition to security assurances, Pompeo on the 13th also emphasized that if North Korea abandons the nuclear program, the United States will lift economic sanctions against the DPRK and allow US private companies to invest in North Korea and provide DPRK assistance in such fields as energy, infrastructure, technology, and agriculture.
Former U.S. Secretary of StateDuring the Resen era, there was a “four non-seeking” response to North Korea. The United States did not seek North Korea’s regime change, did not seek the Korean regime’s collapse, did not seek to speed up the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, and did not seek excuses to cross the 38th parallel. Such security commitments have no persuasive power when the United States and the DPRK are seriously lacking in mutual trust. Before the “Special Fair”, Trump’s trust in Pompeo’s public commitment to North Korea’s security and concrete measures of economic assistance is a good thing. North Korea also “respects”. After Peng Pei'o returned to the United States to return to the United States and brought back three US citizens, North Korea has publicly announced that it will close the Fengxili nuclear test site in the second half of this month, and invited China, the United States, and Russia to visit the closure site.
After less than a month from the “Special Gold Club”, the United States and the DPRK have successively released positive interactive signals and people are optimistic about the results of the “Special Fund”. However, "holding a 25-year deal" depends not only on what the United States says but also what it does.
Reality is not optimistic. On May 13th, Trump’s assistant to national security Bolton issued stringent conditions on North Korea. North Korea not only has to dismantle nuclear facilities and destroy nuclear arsenals, but also pulls nuclear weapons into the United States for destruction. North Korea will also release weapons of mass destruction such as ballistic missiles, chemical and biological arsenals. He also stressed that North Korea should not seek economic assistance from the United States.
U.S.-South Korea military plan to jointly air sky exercises will also be held Will continue.
What's worse is that after the United States and South Korea started their joint military exercise against North Korea on the 11th, North Korea became extremely sensitive and anxious. The DPRK believes that this is an "intentional military provocation" and is a "naked challenge" to the Panmunjom Declaration. It decided to end the high-level North-South talks on May 16 and warned the United States to "think twice" about the fate of the "Special Fair". .
The stimulus to the sensitive and anxious North Korea, the United States and South Korea, is by no means wise. This also highlights the fact that the United States has not yet reached a basic consensus on the DPRK and the US-ROK military alliance still leaves North Korea in fear.
Trump has already withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear multilateral agreement. Do you want to play another "nuclear game?"
Author: Zhang Jingwei Asia-Pacific Think Tank Researcher Chahar Society Advanced Research Fellow, Visiting Fellow, Chung Yang Financial Research Institute, Renmin University of China
Washington, DCAs an international problem expert and senior news practitioner, he has been engaged in international research and reporting for a long time. They adhering to the concept of original, exclusive, in-depth, open, and linkage of the Asia-Pacific Daily, and commenting on the current international events from a unique perspective.
(Source: Asia-Pacific Daily News)